Black Friday Didn’t Break, It Moved
What Retail Leaders Should Take Away from Black Friday 2024/25
Black Friday 2024/25 delivered strong headline numbers. Global online sales hit new highs, traffic surged, and promotions executed at scale. Yet beneath those results, a more important shift became visible.
Across the industry, Black Friday is no longer the moment where customers decide what to buy. It is increasingly the moment where customers decide whether to execute a decision they have already made.
That shift matters more than any single revenue figure. This article explores how demand formation is changing in retail combining external industry data with aggregated behavioral patterns observed across Replenit-analyzed retail datasets.
The Decision Is Happening Earlier, and Elsewhere
Retail has long treated Black Friday as a compressed decision window: discover → compare → buy. That compression is breaking. Multiple external data points now show that evaluation increasingly happens before customers reach a retailer site:
The AI Influence Factor
- 56% of consumers report using AI tools to compare products or prices before purchasing (Deloitte).
- 47% use AI to summarize reviews or pros/cons rather than reading them directly (Deloitte).
- Nearly 50% of generative-AI users rely on tools like ChatGPT or Perplexity to shortlist brands (Digiday).
- BrightEdge observed 7×–8× year-over-year growth in traffic originating from AI answer engines.
By the time customers arrive on a retail site during Black Friday, many already know which product they want, which brand they trust, and the price range they consider acceptable. At that point, they are not discovering. They are validating.
What Black Friday Is Becoming
This does not make Black Friday weaker. It makes it different. Observed Black Friday behavior across the industry supports this:
- Adobe Analytics reported record traffic volumes, but continued decline in average session depth.
- Fewer category hops and faster PDP-to-checkout paths indicate customers were moving faster, not browsing more.
Conversion Rates Are Telling a New Story
Many retailers noticed a familiar but puzzling pattern: traffic up, discounts deeper, but conversion efficiency relatively flat. This is not a campaign failure. Conversion increasingly reflects prior intent, not last-minute pressure.
In practical terms, Black Friday conversion rates are becoming a lagging indicator, a reflection of decisions made earlier in the journey.
What We Observed Across Beauty & FMCG
Aggregated, anonymized datasets across beauty, FMCG, and consumables categories revealed several consistent patterns:
- A disproportionate share of purchases occurred within already-identified readiness windows.
- Time between readiness and execution compressed noticeably during the Black Friday period.
- Increasing discount depth did not offset poor timing alignment.
The Conclusion: Timing accuracy mattered more than discount intensity.
After Black Friday: More Continuity
Instead of sharp post-event drop-offs, many retailers experienced faster normalization and smoother revenue curves. Salesforce’s Holiday Shopping Report reinforces this pattern, noting that AI-influenced purchases contributed to more sustained post-event activity, rather than single-day spikes.
What This Means for Retail Leaders
The takeaway is not that Black Friday is obsolete. It is that its role has changed. Retail leaders who adapt to this shift treat Black Friday as one execution window among many, not the singular moment where demand must be created.
- Demand formation is moving upstream: Focus on being in the AI-shortlist early.
- Execution is becoming more precise: Optimize for speed and friction-less checkout.
- Timing is overtaking pressure: Align with existing customer demand cycles.
Closing Thought
Black Friday didn’t disappear. It stopped being the place where decisions are made. Understanding that shift — and adjusting how peak moments are used — may be the most important Black Friday lesson of the last decade.
